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美国战略与国际研究中心(2018)CSIS: Meeting the China Challenge——Responding to China’s Managed Economy

2018年01月31日 国际关系 ⁄ 共 3621字 ⁄ 字号

 

The U.S.-China relationship is one that neither country can escape. Both benefit from it in important ways. The question for quite some time, though, has been whether China’s economy, international presence, and participation in global institutions would come to look more like our own, or whether it would seek to challenge the order the United States has built and led over the past 70 years. While China’s economic size does not necessarily threaten the United States, China’s willingness to use its economic leverage to forge a global economy closer to its image raises complicated questions considering its lack of transparency. The essays in this volume, written by a diverse group of CSIS scholars, address some of the key issues that currently vex the U.S.-China economic relationship.

Foreword
U.S. attitudes toward China have changed over the past decade. The Trump administration is preparing to confront what senior officials refer to publicly as “China’s predatory economic policies.” The U.S. private sector still seeks a presence in China, but is less optimistic than it was a decade ago that it will find an even playing field. Even a majority of the American public—65 percent—views China as either an adversary or serious problem, according to a Pew Research Center survey last year.

The U.S.-China relationship is one that neither country can escape. Both benefit from it in important ways. The question for quite some time, though, has been whether China’s economy, international presence, and participation in global institutions would come to look more like our own, or whether it would seek to challenge the order the United States has built and led over the past 70 years.

In 2006, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, together with the Peterson Institute for International Economics, published The China Balance Sheet: What the World Needs to Know about the Emerging Superpower. This was a neutral and dispassionate look at China and where it stood at the turn of the twenty-first century. In many respects, China has emerged. It remains the largest country by population—as it was a decade ago—but is the world’s second largest economy, having overtaken Japan. By some estimates, China will overtake the United States as the world’s largest economy in the next decade. While China’s economic size does not necessarily threaten the United States, China’s willingness to use its economic leverage to forge a global economy closer to its image raises complicated questions considering its lack of transparency.
A decade ago, we wrote that China’s rise presented a mixture of both opportunities and risks. We also wrote that China is exceedingly complex and sometimes contradictory. Both remain true today. What has changed is the apparent consolidation of power under President Xi Jinping and his vision of exporting a “Chinese solution” as an alternative to Western democracy and Western norms. In economic terms, this approach recognizes the central role of the state, alongside free markets, in determining outcomes and protecting economic interests.

China is changing; are we? The United States did not become the world’s largest and most innovative economy by accident. As a country, we historically have made investments in public goods that allow Americans to maximize their economic potential. In general, our system relies on individual economic actors over a central authority to make economic decisions. U.S. economic activity is predicated on the rule of law, where property rights are respected and innovation rewarded. I believe this is still true today, and I am optimistic about America’s future. But it is worth asking whether the United States will still be able to do big things as a nation and show the world our model is superior given how polarized, insular, and constipated our politics
has become.

The following essays, written by a diverse group of CSIS scholars, address some of the key issues that currently vex the U.S.-China economic relationship. CSIS experts will continue to  explore the complex challenges of a rising China over the coming months and years. We hope you find this contribution thought-provoking and useful.
John J. Hamre
President and CEO
CSIS

出处:https://www.csis.org/analysis/meeting-china-challenge