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Munich Security Report(2018)To the Brink – and Back? 世界秩序濒临崩溃?

2018年02月17日 国际关系 ⁄ 共 5230字 ⁄ 字号

 

 

For international security, the year 2017 was marked – among others – by signs of a continued erosion of the so-called liberal international order and an increasingly unpredictable US foreign policy. Tensions in many parts of the world have been growing: the rhetoric between the US and North Korea has escalated, the rift in the Gulf has deepened, not only between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and major arms control treaties are at stake. In the last year, the world got closer – much too close – to the brink of significant conflict, and the international community must do whatever it can to move away from the brink.

It is in this context that the Munich Security Conference Foundation publishes its annual Munich Security Report (download the PDF version of the report here). Under the heading "To the Brink - and Back?", the Munich Security Report 2018 provides an overview of major security policy issues and features data, analyses, maps and infographics. As a companion and impulse for the 54th edition of the Munich Security Conference, the Munich Security Report serves as background reading for conference participants, but is also made available to the general public. The last report was downloaded more than 30,000 times and received ample press coverage in both German and international media. The discussion on Twitter will take place under #MSCreport.

This year's main topics include the crisis of the liberal international order and the impact of the first year of Donald Trump's presidency. The report also covers the new momentum in European defense policy and the potential impact of Brexit. In addition, the report analyses regional developments in Central and Eastern Europe, Africa, and the Middle East. It also provides insights into the state of global nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation efforts, the issue of environmental and climate security as well as cyber security.

The Munich Security Report features a number of exclusive and unpublished materials. For the preparation of the report, the Munich Security Conference has collaborated with renowned partner institutions, including the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS), McKinsey & Company, the Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS), the Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI), Oxford Economics, the Peterson Institute for International Economics (PIIE) and the RAND Corporation.

A FEW SELECT HIGHLIGHTS OF THE MUNICH SECURITY REPORT 2018:

  • An opinion poll commissioned by the MSC and McKinsey shows that a majority of Europeans want to have their armed forces to be deployable beyond their national borders, preferably around the world.
  • Calculations by the RAND Corporation compare the strength of NATO's and Russia's military power in the Baltic States in case of a short-notice confrontation. Russia outnumbers NATO's rapidly deployable combat units in terms of artillery and infantry by far, while NATO possesses air superiority.
  • The Vienna Center for Disarmament and Non-Proliferation demonstrates the severe impact a cancellation of the INF treaty could have. The projection shows that Russia’s INF missiles could likely reach every major NATO/US base and nuclear weapon storage sites in Europe.
  • New data provided by the Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) shows the significant expansion of China's infrastructure in the South Chinese Sea as well as the increasing global military footprint of China.
  • Previously unpublished data by the International Institute for Strategic Studies show the military expenditures and procurement priorities of select African countries. The data show that patrol boats and helicopters, for example, are in demand, whereas there is no procurement contract for systems like submarines, cruisers, destroyers, frigates or corvettes.
  • The James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies and the Nuclear Threat Initiative provide an assessment of the state of the North Korean nuclear program and an analysis of what a cancellation of the Iranian nuclear deal would mean.
  • Unpublished projections by UNEP show the correlation between drought and low intensity conflicts in a world map.

附:

慕尼黑安全报告:世界已濒临深渊?

原有的世界秩序正在分崩离析,大规模冲突的风险在与日俱增。慕尼黑安全报告为我们描绘了一幅令人悲观的世界局势图,同时也为下周即将开幕的慕尼黑安全会议定下了基调。

15.02.2018,Matthias von Hei http://www.dw.com/zh/%E6%85%95%E5%B0%BC%E9%BB%91%E5%AE%89%E5%85%A8%E6%8A%A5%E5%91%8A%E4%B8%96%E7%95%8C%E5%B7%B2%E6%BF%92%E4%B8%B4%E6%B7%B1%E6%B8%8A/a-42602783?maca=zh-Twitter-sharing&zhongwen=simp

(德国之声中文网)安全问题专家当中乐观主义者并不多见,安全局势评估报告的基调也大多是悲观的。新近的慕尼黑安全报告也不例外。这份报告的题目是《置于死地而后生?》,认为新的安全隐患正在逼近。慕尼黑安全会议主席伊兴格在报告的前言中写道:去年,世界曾一度濒临大规模战争的边缘,战争曾"一触即发"。他写道,无论是美国和朝鲜之间箭拔弩族的态势,还是沙特阿拉伯和伊朗之间的敌视,还有北约和俄罗斯之间持续紧张的关系,无一不说明世界的动荡。

自顾自的美国

和过去三年一样,这份报告是为下周即将开幕的慕尼黑安全会议定调。从某种意义上讲,这份报告也是去年报告的继续。去年2月,报告书就指出,当时新上台的特朗普总统可能会告别美国所扮演的国际安全捍卫者的角色,外交政策可能会出现单极化,甚至民族主义的趋势。而今年的报告证实了这一点:美国告别了世界领袖的角色。

对于建设协调国际关系的地区性或全球性机构,美国显得缺乏兴趣。美国告别了过去那种基于共同价值观的政策,而他们唯一看重的就是个别领域的共同利益。相比之下,外交政策已经显得不那么重要了:负责外交事务的美国国务院经费已经被大幅削减,而与此同时,军费开支则再度提升。慕尼黑安全报告援引美国外交政策专家约翰·伊肯贝利(G. John Ikenberry)的话写道:"世界上最强大的国家已经开始毁掉他们自己建立起的国际秩序。"

被抛弃的欧洲人?

对于欧洲人来说,美国的变化也意味着,欧洲必须要在捍卫自身安全的问题承担起更大的责任了。报告说中提到,2017年5月,德国总理默克尔在美国总统特朗普结束访德行程后表示,"那个我们可以完全信赖他人的年代已经在一定程度上成了历史。"这位德国女总理说,现在"欧洲人必须把命运掌握在自己手里了。"默克尔此番言论也包括欧洲各国应当提高军费支出的含义。

如果欧盟各国及挪威都能实现GDP的2%用于军费的目标,那么,到2024年,各国军费支出将提高大约50%,达到3860亿欧元。不过,欧洲各国要想保持有效的军力,就必须加强相互间的联网。安全报告的作者指出,"目前各国在联网及数码化问题上仍有很大的空白。"单单填补这一空白就会耗尽增加的军费。此外,还急需重新整合分散于欧洲各国的军工企业。

令人欣慰的是,报告书中也看到了欧洲在防务领域走向协调统一的势头。25个欧洲国家加入了"永久结构性合作",同意在欧盟基础上协调各国的安全和防务政策。法国和德国计划共同研发下一代战斗机。而随着马克龙当选法国总统,欧洲建立共同军队的倡议又多了一个强有力的支持者。

气候变化、冲突焦、移民

就其他方面而言,今年的安全局势报告也是去年文本的继续。去年的报告中就已较大篇幅论述了气候及移民问题。美国宣布退出巴黎气候保护议定书,并在其国家安全战略评估中首次没有将气候变化列为安全隐患,去年的慕尼黑安全报告就已对此明确表达了遗憾。

报告书指出,2015年至2017年,地球经历了有气候记载以来连续三个最热的年头,全球发生了一系列风灾、旱灾以及洪涝灾害。与此同时,安全报告还指出了气候变化与地区争端的内在联系。报告中形容气候变化是"冲突强化剂"。报告书描述非洲及移民问题的章节中写道:"一系列持久的武装冲突是造成移民、驱逐和饥荒的主要原因。"